05 WFE Core Deposition Etch Ion Implant

The AI-driven semiconductor buildout is forcing a structural shift to 3D architectures (GAA logic, HBM, 3D NAND) that demands exponentially more deposition, etch, and ion implant steps per wafer. This creates a sustained supercycle for wafer fab equipment (WFE), with SEMI projecting record spend of $145B in 2026 and $156B in 2027. Companies that hold quasi-monopoly positions in critical process steps—ALD (ASM), coater/developer (TEL), ion implant (Axcelis/Veeco merger), and advanced etch (LRCX, AMAT)—are structural bottlenecks with pricing power and multi-year order visibility. However, extreme valuations in many names, escalating US-China export controls, and the risk of a post-AI digestion correction temper the outlook.

Outlookbull
Sentyment sektoraBullish
Faza cyklu kapitałowegomid_cycle
Ekspozycja na AIDirect and structural – every AI accelerator requires advanced deposition/etch at leading nodes and HBM packaging; AI interconnect optics (CPO) also drive demand for MOCVD (Aixtron, Veeco). The AI tailwind accounts for >70% of incremental WFE spend in 2026.

Uzasadnienie outlooku

WFE spend is in a structural upcycle, not a cyclical blip, backed by hyperscaler CapEx commitments (~$690B by 2026) and node transitions that permanently increase equipment intensity. The secular AI demand tailwind is broad-based, spanning logic, memory, and advanced packaging.

Ranking spółek

  1. ASM.AS — ASM International ()
  2. AMAT — Applied Materials ()
  3. VECO — Veeco Instruments ()
  4. 7735.T — SCREEN Holdings ()
  5. LRCX — Lam Research ()
  6. 8035.T — Tokyo Electron ()
  7. 6856.T — Horiba ()
  8. ACLS — Axcelis Technologies ()
  9. AIXA.DE — Aixtron SE ()
  10. ICHR — Ichor Holdings ()
  11. 6273.T — SMC Corporation ()
  12. MKSI — MKS Instruments ()
  13. UCTT — Ultra Clean Holdings ()
  14. 6525.T — Kokusai Electric ()

Kluczowe ryzyka

Katalizatory